Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b9e…8594 politics 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$10
politics 39% −$10
sports 6% +$63
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 +1.3% -8.4% 11% 9% -9.3%
all 106 +3.1% -6.7% 14% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 12% -9.4%
10% -15.6% 9% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 8% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×7.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage116d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $375 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $418 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $438 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $492 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $478 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $425 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 26d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $163 27d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $163 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $185 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $185 31d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $219 31d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $219 31d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records