Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b9c…c182
world · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$494 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$532 · open +$110
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,107
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions31
Markets (closed)30 / 61
History coverage7d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day97.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 31 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,126
7 days−$532
14 days−$532
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner Fire Flux Esports 78¢ 80¢ $1,124 $1,143 +$19 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner Fire Flux Esports 78¢ 80¢ $1,060 $1,089 +$29 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $1,044 $1,033 −$11 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $530 $561 +$31 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $527 $499 −$28 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs Fire Flux Esports 78¢ 81¢ $257 $268 +$11 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 31¢ 60¢ $125 $246 +$121 (+97%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $182 $195 +$13 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 77¢ 84¢ $133 $147 +$14 (+10%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? No 42¢ 20¢ $280 $136 −$144 (-51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 44¢ 52¢ $101 $119 +$18 (+18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 43¢ 48¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+10%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $83 $94 +$11 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 93¢ 99¢ $74 $78 +$4 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 32¢ 78¢ $23 $57 +$33 (+143%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 53¢ 37¢ $74 $52 −$22 (-30%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $43 $51 +$7 (+16%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 56¢ 76¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+36%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $46 $20 −$25 (-55%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 36¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+79%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 38¢ 27¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? No 83¢ 87¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $577 −$75 -13%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $54 +$31 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $49 −$11 -22%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $59 −$5 -8%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $73 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $362 −$118 -32%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$10 +107%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 10 $194 −$142 -73%
Map Handicap: SWIM (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (+1.5) Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 10 $84 −$84 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $639 −$604 -95%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $121 +$40 +34%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $89 −$27 -30%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $128 −$72 -56%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $169 +$31 +18%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $480 −$49 -10%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $78 +$45 +58%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $44 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $498 +$624 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$402
world 37% +$178
other 13% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 83¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $12 2m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $4 9m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $4 9m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 16m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 17m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $12 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $159 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $161 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $4 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $6 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $14 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $9 21m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 21m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 22m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 22m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 22m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 22m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $12 23m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $10 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $21 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 76¢ $77 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $10 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $27 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $12 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $13 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 80¢ $16 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 79¢ $12 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 78¢ $12 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 77¢ $27 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
≤30d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
≤90d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
all 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover97.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 33% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 27% -29.3%
15% -34.6% 20% -36.1%
20% -41.0% 17% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,107.43 · official $6,107.47 (match) · 757 history records