Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b9b…2528 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+4%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$259
14 days+$259
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$171
other 16% −$2
sports 8% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +19.2% +7.8% 52% 41% +17.8%
≤30d 27 +19.2% +7.8% 52% 41% +17.8%
≤90d 32 +6.9% -3.3% 47% 34% -5.4%
all 32 +6.9% -3.3% 47% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 34% -5.4%
10% -12.5% 25% -14.5%
15% -21.0% 22% -22.7%
20% -28.7% 16% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage84d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$48 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$28 +554%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$7 +7%
Cucurella: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$11 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$183 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 25 $73 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 25 $123 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 25 $332 −$23 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 25 $130 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 25 $145 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $63 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.72 · official $25.72 (match) · 98 history records