Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b92…42e6 crypto 67 markets active 139d ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$160,728 (+37%) realized +$160,728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%52W / 123L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$6,481per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56,158
7 days−$56,158
14 days−$56,158
30 days−$56,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$25,967
politics 17% +$6,686
crypto 12% +$184,735
finance 3% +$7,064
economics 1% +$4,171
sports 0% +$12,184
tech 0% −$1,134
world 0% +$4,548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -78.0% -80.1% 6% 6% -96.8%
≤30d 87 -78.0% -80.1% 6% 6% -96.8%
≤90d 87 -78.0% -80.1% 6% 6% -96.8%
all 175 +73.7% +57.2% 30% 26% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.2% 26% +2.6%
10% +42.2% 25% -7.2%
15% ← realistic here +28.4% 25% -16.2%
20% +15.8% 25% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -163% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$549) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +226% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
31.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,942 vs −$991 · ×5.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160,728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses52 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 67
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$6,481
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlan Jun 29 $45 −$48 -107%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Jun 29 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $518 −$518 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Jun 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the second most seats in the 2025 Jun 29 $13 −$69 -517%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Vegas Matt be profitable: Week of October 12 Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 20? Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $61 −$45 -75%
Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherland Jun 29 $408 −$168 -41%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 29 $923 −$1,903 -206%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $110 +$76 +69%
Will New Social Contract win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 29 $1,290 −$2,003 -155%
Will Raymond James Financial (RJF) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $265 −$265 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 10, 6PM ET Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 29 $31 −$70 -223%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in September? Jun 29 $395 −$391 -99%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $2,330 −$2,330 -100%
Will Stubhub’s market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on Jun 29 $26 −$8 -31%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the New Social Contract win the second most seats in the 2025 Net Jun 29 $23 −$70 -301%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Jun 29 $107 −$752 -704%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $155 −$156 -101%
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Volt Netherlands win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherl Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $281 −$1,122 -400%
Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $0 $0 +207%
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $24 −$112 -474%
Will the Forum for Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Net Jun 29 $1 −$61 -8619%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 29 $1,290 −$1,954 -152%
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31? Jun 29 $20 −$163 -797%
Russia announces air truce by August 31? Jun 29 $1,649 −$2,069 -125%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $27 +$42 +154%
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $479 −$391 -82%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Denk win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary ele Jun 29 $1,195 −$2,004 -168%
Will Helen of Troy (HELE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Jun 29 $889 −$5,348 -602%
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $121 −$109 -90%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? Jun 29 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Volt Netherlands win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 29 $1,327 −$2,023 -152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolien van Vroonhoven-Kok become the next Prime Minister of the SELL Yes 0¢ $27 138d
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $46 138d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $38 138d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $24 138d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 138d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $60 138d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 138d
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $3 143d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 143d
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records