Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b91…edd9 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,543 (+27%) realized +$1,548 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$576per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$1,509
14 days+$1,509
30 days+$1,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% +$1,468
sports 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +43.9% +30.2% 89% 78% +16.9%
≤30d 9 +43.9% +30.2% 89% 78% +16.9%
≤90d 9 +43.9% +30.2% 89% 78% +16.9%
all 9 +43.9% +30.2% 89% 78% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 78% +16.9%
10% +17.7% 78% +5.7%
15% +6.3% 56% -4.5%
20% -4.1% 56% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$10 · ×18.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×151.92 per $1 lost it wins $151.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$1,548
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$576
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $590 $585 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $1,136 +$641 +56%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $790 +$208 +26%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,995 +$605 +30%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 18 $1,179 +$18 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $594 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $36 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 55¢ $20 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 15h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 100¢ $1,777 2d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio SELL No 100¢ $998 2d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 92¢ $959 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $250 4d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 95¢ $238 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $425 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $189 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $2 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $0 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $0 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $270 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $460 9d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,535 9d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 90¢ $480 11d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 90¢ $699 11d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 79¢ $262 11d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 79¢ $87 11d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 79¢ $12 11d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 79¢ $37 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.00 · official $585.00 (match) · 44 history records