Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b91…982d other 455 markets active 5h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$492 (+15%) realized +$637 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%116W / 123L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day126.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$20
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 35% +$21
other 21% −$70
politics 18% +$14
world 11% +$2
economics 6% +$8
crypto 6% +$7
finance 1% −$4
culture 1% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +231.3% +199.8% 25% 25% +19.7%
≤30d 239 +14.1% +3.2% 49% 36% -5.4%
≤90d 239 +14.1% +3.2% 49% 36% -5.4%
all 239 +14.1% +3.2% 49% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 36% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 26% -14.4%
15% -15.7% 18% -22.7%
20% -23.9% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$637
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses116 / 123
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions497
Markets (closed)239 / 455
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day126.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 497 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+462%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+28%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $5 $11 +$7 (+145%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 4¢ 10¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+150%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+233%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+111%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+42%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+74%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? No 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-31%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+352%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$2 +15841%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 29 $0 $0 -160%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $0 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2 $0 -20%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $0 $0 +67%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -0%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 17 $0 $0 +25%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close Jun 16 $0 $0 -75%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $28 +$6 +22%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.85 · official $445.34 (match) · 3500 history records