Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b91…b1fb sports 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-1%) realized −$179 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%68W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$242
14 days−$582
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$209
other 7% −$439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -52.3%
≤30d 28 -17.9% -25.7% 50% 50% -24.5%
≤90d 83 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 47% -13.4%
all 139 -10.1% -18.7% 49% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 49% -10.8%
10% -26.4% 48% -19.4%
15% -33.5% 42% -27.2%
20% -40.1% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$90 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses68 / 71
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage171d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $79 −$78 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $119 −$118 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $67 −$66 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 +$23 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $141 −$140 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $143 +$57 +40%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $87 +$63 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $119 +$81 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $87 +$113 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $111 −$110 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $75 −$74 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $82 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $119 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $67 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $141 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 10d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $89 12d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $107 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $93 14d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 16d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 17d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 71¢ $143 19d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $131 19d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $87 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 23d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $135 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 25d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 26d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $119 27d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 29d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $89 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.00 · official $115.00 (match) · 217 history records