Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b8d…6987 crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (312 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$670 (+12%) realized +$669 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%56W / 15L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day311.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$940
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (312 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +22.4% +10.7% 79% 55% +8.6%
≤30d 71 +22.4% +10.7% 79% 55% +8.6%
≤90d 71 +22.4% +10.7% 79% 55% +8.6%
all 71 +22.4% +10.7% 79% 55% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover311.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 55% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 45% -1.8%
15% -9.6% 34% -11.3%
20% -18.4% 27% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$41 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$669
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses56 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day311.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 82¢ 50¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $129 +$61 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$26 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $251 +$159 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$7 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $125 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $284 +$216 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $116 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $656 +$94 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $402 −$151 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $364 −$244 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$26 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $170 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $94 +$56 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$52 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$12 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $113 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $116 +$84 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$100 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $14.95 (match) · 484 history records