Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b8c…9e5d
crypto · 204 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,554 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,373 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,050
Realized−$1,373
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses39 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions33
Markets (closed)207 / 204
History coverage39d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day88.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 33 History 207 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,051
7 days−$2,012
14 days−$1,370
30 days−$1,857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $258 $341 +$83 (+32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $123 $130 +$7 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $137 $128 −$10 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $73 $65 −$8 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $52 +$14 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $66 $41 −$25 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $31 $28 −$4 (-11%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $131 $20 −$111 (-85%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $17 $8 −$8 (-51%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 14 $9 −$16 -173%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? Jun 14 $35 −$38 -108%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 14 $50 −$96 -192%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 14 $0 −$2 -3084%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -190%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Jun 14 $1 −$11 -1399%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 14 $25 −$134 -545%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $3 −$772 -28338%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $0 −$27 -19899%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $11 −$8 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 14 $323 −$323 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 14 $322 −$372 -116%
Will XRP reach $1.70 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 14 $0 −$20 -13188%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $2 −$4 -179%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$227 -975%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $1 −$21 -3133%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? Jun 14 $7 −$13 -177%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 4? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$55 -1233%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Jun 14 $88 −$102 -116%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $92 −$26 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $713 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $75 +$3 +5%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 14 $355 −$179 -50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $564 −$560 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$9 +130%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$21 +181%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $137 +$27 +20%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 13 $949 −$85 -9%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $206 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$141 +214%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $369 −$110 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $271 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$3,560
crypto 13% −$1,197
other 10% −$342
finance 8% −$90
economics 8% −$229
sports 3% −$604
tech 2% −$102
politics 2% −$119
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 52m
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 58m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $48 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $40 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $27 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $305 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $92 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $30 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $126 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $9 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $64 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $125 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $77 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $128 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $160 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -41.2% -46.8% 16% 12% -18.1%
≤30d 180 -39.9% -45.7% 20% 12% -11.4%
≤90d 207 -30.7% -37.3% 19% 12% -9.2%
all 207 -30.7% -37.3% 19% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.3% 12% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.3% 8% -17.9%
15% -48.7% 8% -25.8%
20% -53.8% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,050.31 · official $1,050.54 (match) · 3500 history records