Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b8a…f4a4
other · 611 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,101 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,878 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,888
Realized−$18,878
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses204 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions215
Markets (closed)567 / 611
History coverage24d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day129.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 215 History 567 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20,908
7 days−$19,841
14 days−$18,916
30 days−$18,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $453 $660 +$206 (+46%)
Will Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $220 $214 −$6 (-3%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 66¢ 81¢ $161 $198 +$37 (+23%)
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 42¢ $185 $198 +$13 (+7%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 50¢ $130 $175 +$45 (+34%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $167 $168 +$1 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $161 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 60¢ $119 $142 +$23 (+19%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 57¢ 63¢ $114 $126 +$12 (+11%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 70¢ $91 $102 +$11 (+13%)
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 64¢ $67 $77 +$10 (+15%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 89¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $82 $74 −$8 (-9%)
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 68¢ 66¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $75 $71 −$5 (-6%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 61¢ $79 $70 −$9 (-12%)
Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 46¢ $14 $65 +$51 (+360%)
Will Croatia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 65¢ 66¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 94¢ 92¢ $53 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 96¢ 97¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -200%
Spread: Florida Gators (-35.5) Jun 13 $515 −$1,030 -200%
Will Wesley be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $470 on January 28? Jun 13 $7 −$15 -200%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$151 -919%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Jun 13 $72 +$39 +53%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,160? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $584 −$584 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 13 $4,068 −$4,150 -102%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $190-$192 on the final day of trading of Jun 13 $9 −$10 -107%
Will iHeartMedia (IHRT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? Jun 13 $58 −$64 -112%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440–460 in 2025? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 13 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 4? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla reach $518 in November? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5 Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $225? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$43 -123%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of November 17 above $570? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of th Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$140 -140%
Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +5244%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $285? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of January 12 above $420? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 in 2025? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +104%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? ( Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $186-$188 on the final day of trading of Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company duri Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$430 on the final day of trading of th Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $180? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5) Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $122 end of November? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 24% +$1,221
sports 20% +$381
world 20% −$214
crypto 17% +$900
finance 11% −$670
politics 5% +$301
weather 1% +$164
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $6 0m
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $23 9m
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $51 9m
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 15¢ $4 19m
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $1 21m
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $36 28m
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $43 30m
Will Weverton be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 31m
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 45¢ $4 37m
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $5 51m
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 11¢ $3 52m
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 56m
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 59m
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St SELL Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St SELL Yes 59¢ $15 1h
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 54¢ $11 1h
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St SELL Yes 59¢ $14 1h
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $188 1h
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $82 1h
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $33 1h
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $103 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 67¢ $37 1h
Will Neymar score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 80¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St BUY Yes 53¢ $59 1h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 1h
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $12 1h
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY No 15¢ $4 1h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 -11.3% -19.7% 27% 17% -44.8%
≤30d 567 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 23% -30.9%
≤90d 567 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 23% -30.9%
all 567 -4.0% -13.1% 36% 23% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 23% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 18% -37.5%
15% -29.0% 16% -43.5%
20% -36.0% 13% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,887.87 · official $5,885.76 (match) · 3500 history records