Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b83…b2f8 crypto 291 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$584 (+1%) realized +$571 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%274W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$104
14 days+$192
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$532
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
other 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 63 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 273 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 1% -8.6%
all 289 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -8.6%
10% -18.2% 1% -17.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,223
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses274 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)289 / 291
History coverage123d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $810 $815 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $421 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $547 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $625 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $403 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $396 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $595 +$26 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $396 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $390 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $301 +$14 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $778 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $389 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $591 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $771 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $302 +$22 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $301 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $749 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $528 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $377 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $743 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $428 +$17 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $556 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $370 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $370 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $369 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $369 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $364 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $274 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $274 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $360 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $359 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $271 +$16 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $270 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $269 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $358 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $622 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $265 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $353 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $705 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $401 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $241 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $305 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $421 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $407 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $323 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $302 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $403 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $298 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $298 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $300 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $396 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $396 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $301 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $390 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $389 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $389 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $389 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $291 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 12¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $384 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $386 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $302 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $320 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,222.58 · official $1,222.58 (match) · 705 history records