Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

4B 0x4b82…2291 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,438 (+35%) realized +$2,461 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%15W / 12L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$223per market

Trades / day38.7pace

Fees−$101est.

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+40.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+55.4%	+40.6%	56%	56%	+57.3%
≤30d	27	+55.4%	+40.6%	56%	56%	+57.3%
≤90d	27	+55.4%	+40.6%	56%	56%	+57.3%
all	27	+55.4%	+40.6%	56%	56%	+57.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover38.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+40.6%	56%	+57.3%
10% ← realistic here	+27.1%	56%	+42.3%
15%	+14.8%	56%	+28.5%
20%	+3.6%	48%	+15.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +107% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$432 vs −$151 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$177

Realized+$2,461

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses15 / 12

Est. fees paid−$101

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 31

History coverage1d

Avg bet$223

Trades / day38.7

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	32¢	26¢	$100	$80	−$20 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$404	+$949	+235%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$103	+$583	+568%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$1,069	+$720	+67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$243	+$241	+99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$254	−$254	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$103	+$38	+37%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$103	−$103	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$308	−$308	-100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 17	$48	−$48	-100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 17	$102	−$102	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$205	−$205	-100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 17	$283	−$283	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$589	+$506	+86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$204	+$485	+237%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$204	+$482	+236%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$476	+$499	+105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$288	+$290	+101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Jun 16	$101	+$44	+43%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$204	+$432	+212%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	+$231	+226%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$187	+$299	+160%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay?	Jun 15	$242	+$683	+282%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$103	1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY Yes	52¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	SELL Yes	83¢	$685	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	22¢	$98	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot	BUY	7¢	$172	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	32¢	$102	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,789	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	33¢	$204	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$484	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	99¢	$40	2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	SELL Yes	23¢	$140	2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$687	3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)	BUY Tampa Bay Rays	21¢	$102	4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY Tampa Bay Rays	38¢	$102	4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$382	4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$203	4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$689	4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$589	6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	15¢	$205	6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	36¢	$254	6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$204	7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.61 · official $343.49 · 67 history records