Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b82…f5ee sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 26% −$2
other 22% +$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
all 146 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage168d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 96¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $52 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 18 $51 −$3 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $53 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 13d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 13d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 21d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $47 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 87¢ $47 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 92¢ $51 37d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 130d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $58 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $58 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $56 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $56 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $53 130d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $53 130d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 130d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 130d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 130d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 130d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 130d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 130d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $57 130d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $57 130d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 130d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $58 130d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 130d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 130d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $15 130d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 130d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $15 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.18 · official $52.18 (match) · 420 history records