Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b81…97cd other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$21 (+16%) realized +$16 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$22
sports 28% +$63
crypto 27% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.3% -7.5% 30% 30% +3.1%
≤30d 20 +2.3% -7.5% 30% 30% +3.1%
≤90d 20 +2.3% -7.5% 30% 30% +3.1%
all 20 +2.3% -7.5% 30% 30% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 30% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 30% -6.7%
15% -24.4% 30% -15.8%
20% -31.8% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)20 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+273%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$41 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$10 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.81 · official $27.82 (match) · 94 history records