Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b7b…4748 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,409 (+38%) realized +$1,409 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$143
14 days+$382
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$1,060
other 35% +$317
sports 13% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 58% +1.0%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 64% +10.0%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 64% 64% +10.0%
all 15 +3.8% -6.1% 67% 67% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 67% +26.1%
10% -15.1% 60% +14.0%
15% -23.3% 60% +3.0%
20% -30.8% 33% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$67 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,409
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage604d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$49 +63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $155 +$104 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $231 −$231 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $123 +$60 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $353 +$146 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $502 +$218 +43%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,895 +$1,060 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $78 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $6 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $32 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $11 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $260 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $155 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $129 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $499 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $353 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $6 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $31 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $6 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $720 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $154 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records