Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b7b…736b sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized +$2 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$28
other 27% −$7
tech 21% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 25% +4.5%
≤30d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 25% +4.5%
≤90d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 25% +4.5%
all 4 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 25% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 25% +4.5%
10% -7.3% 25% -5.5%
15% -16.3% 0% -14.6%
20% -24.5% 0% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $81 +$8 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$20 +33%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $89 48m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 91¢ $59 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 91¢ $18 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 91¢ $4 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $81 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $61 16h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $31 16h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $30 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $64.97 (match) · 12 history records