Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b7a…5ce6 politics 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$346 (+6%) realized +$326 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$100
14 days−$45
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$316
world 26% −$80
other 8% +$96
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 33% -0.1%
≤30d 11 -13.8% -22.0% 64% 36% +0.5%
≤90d 17 -15.3% -23.4% 65% 47% +2.6%
all 48 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 35% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 35% -4.0%
10% -33.7% 17% -13.2%
15% -40.1% 6% -21.6%
20% -46.0% 2% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$24 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Open positions22
Markets (closed)48 / 70
History coverage172d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $135 $176 +$42 (+31%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $164 $165 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 36¢ $140 $114 −$26 (-19%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 65¢ 57¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 73¢ 41¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $813 +$106 +13%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $43 −$7 -16%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Jun 13 $251 −$146 -58%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $11 −$8 -72%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 07 $72 +$8 +11%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $852 +$254 +30%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $150 +$53 +35%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 01 $151 +$61 +41%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $271 +$44 +16%
Will Kanye West release an album in 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 06 $220 +$40 +18%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 19 $170 −$153 -90%
Will Trump say "Congo" during the State of the Union address? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 −$14 -71%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $1 +$2 +178%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 05 $10 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $180 +$38 +21%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 31 $185 +$32 +17%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $428 +$137 +32%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 30 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Jan 29 $1 $0 +23%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 27 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $1 $0 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 22 $5 $0 -10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $1 $0 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $403 +$79 +20%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $20 −$10 -51%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $140 −$42 -30%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $10 −$4 -44%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $67 −$3 -4%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $44 −$17 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 95¢ $701 6d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 99¢ $100 6d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio SELL No 73¢ $36 6d
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 8d
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 8d
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 8d
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 12d
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 12d
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 12d
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? SELL Yes 37¢ $105 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 13d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 80¢ $1 14d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 63¢ $13 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 65¢ $15 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 65¢ $7 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 65¢ $10 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 70¢ $35 15d
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect SELL Yes 13¢ $3 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 53¢ $16 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 53¢ $5 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 53¢ $5 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 43¢ $4 15d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 86¢ $43 15d
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect BUY Yes 44¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.14 · official $840.15 (match) · 327 history records