Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b78…c0ee sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-23%) realized −$189 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$266
other 23% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.6% -30.0% 43% 43% -14.6%
≤30d 52 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 35% -32.8%
≤90d 52 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 35% -32.8%
all 52 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 35% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 35% -32.8%
10% -43.1% 35% -39.2%
15% -48.6% 33% -45.1%
20% -53.7% 29% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$9 +85%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IK Oddevold win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $15 +$16 +104%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +117%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $8 +$7 +96%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $8 +$7 +82%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 +$17 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $31 +$38 +124%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $8 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 52¢ $10 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $10 4d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 43¢ $10 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $10 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $10 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $10 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $10 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $10 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $10 6d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $10 6d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 62¢ $10 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $10 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $10 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $6 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 8d
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.38 · official $58.38 (match) · 80 history records