trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 100% | 0% | -7.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 100% | 0% | -7.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +1.6% | -8.0% | 100% | 0% | -8.2% |
| all | 21 | +2.1% | -7.6% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -16.5% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on May 29? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 30? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia | Apr 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Apr 29 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | Apr 29 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 27 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Mar 27 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 18 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 18 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 | Jan 15 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 15 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Jan 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 26? | Nov 26 | $8,566 | +$17 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? | Nov 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |