Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

4B 0x4b72…9a6b other 28 markets active 7h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$209 (+10%) realized +$155 · open +$54

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate74%20W / 7L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$72

7 days+$149

14 days+$247

30 days+$247

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+3.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+11.4%	+0.8%	72%	68%	+0.0%
≤30d	27	+14.6%	+3.7%	74%	70%	+3.8%
≤90d	27	+14.6%	+3.7%	74%	70%	+3.8%
all	27	+14.6%	+3.7%	74%	70%	+3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.7%	70%	+3.8%
10%	-6.2%	52%	-6.1%
15%	-15.3%	33%	-15.2%
20%	-23.6%	19%	-23.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

5% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$33 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$554

Realized+$155

Unrealized+$54

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses20 / 7

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	13¢	$500	$554	+$54 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$19	+38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$20	+40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$8	+16%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Jun 17	$101	−$27	-26%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	Jun 17	$152	+$25	+17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego	Jun 17	$50	+$5	+10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$51	+$73	+143%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	−$2	-3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$50	+$11	+23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$50	−$1	-2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$50	+$7	+15%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$50	+$13	+26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	+$14	+27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	+$9	+18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	+$10	+20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$50	+$15	+31%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$51	+$44	+86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$50	+$23	+46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 12	$51	+$34	+67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 11	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$50	+$20	+39%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$51	+$42	+83%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$213	+$56	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	97¢	$59	7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$513	7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	83¢	$50	10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime	50¢	$37	12h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	SELL Arthur Fery	100¢	$83	13h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	BUY Arthur Fery	60¢	$51	14h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	SELL Adrian Mannarino	40¢	$47	14h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime	67¢	$50	14h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	SELL Learner Tien	34¢	$38	14h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	SELL Arthur Fery	52¢	$47	14h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY Learner Tien	44¢	$51	14h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	BUY Adrian Mannarino	42¢	$51	14h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego	SELL Ben Shelton	100¢	$55	14h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	BUY Arthur Fery	54¢	$51	14h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego	BUY Ben Shelton	91¢	$50	15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	71¢	$50	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	67¢	$49	36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	40¢	$51	36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	88¢	$49	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	98¢	$58	2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	81¢	$50	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	89¢	$50	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	85¢	$50	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$63	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	95¢	$64	3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	79¢	$50	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	63¢	$51	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.05 · official $554.05 (match) · 63 history records