Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b71…17ee crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized +$22 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$14
other 39% −$9
sports 8% $0
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 61% 50% +11.9%
≤30d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 61% 50% +11.9%
≤90d 18 +9.9% -0.5% 61% 50% +11.9%
all 18 +9.9% -0.5% 61% 50% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 50% +11.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 44% +1.2%
15% -18.7% 44% -8.6%
20% -26.7% 39% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $90 $81 −$9 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 66¢ 50¢ $95 $73 −$22 (-23%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 85¢ 94¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$11 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 11m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $43 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.64 · official $335.69 · 63 history records