Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4b6e…4d80 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 42% -6.5%
≤30d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 42% -6.5%
all 20 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 40% -6.6%
10% -19.1% 35% -15.6%
15% -26.9% 35% -23.7%
20% -34.1% 35% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$116 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage120d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $224 −$214 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$334 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $82 +$218 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $259 +$236 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $278 −$268 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $125 +$271 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $144 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $180 −$176 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$97 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $111 +$87 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $136 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $87 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $290 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $57 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records