Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b67…b277 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$8
sports 25% +$11
world 22% −$12
other 9% +$11
weather 2% −$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 8% -9.4%
all 43 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 14% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 12% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 9% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage536d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $136 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 20 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $34 −$12 -36%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $311 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $335 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $9 −$1 -6%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $64 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 21 $2 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? Mar 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Canisius vs. Rider Mar 05 $14 −$4 -33%
Utah vs. Red Wings Mar 05 $26 $0 +0%
Tulane vs. East Carolina Mar 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? Mar 05 $18 +$8 +45%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Feb 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Coppin State vs. SC State Feb 18 $9 +$9 +108%
West Georgia vs. Bellarmine Feb 16 $8 +$8 +100%
James Madison vs. Coastal Carolina Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Grand Canyon vs. Tarleton Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $41 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.55 · official $27.01 (match) · 138 history records