Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b65…fc9c crypto 1691 markets active 3d ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$936 (+3%) realized +$936 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%832W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day115.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,563
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -69.9% -72.8% 16% 16% -81.4%
≤30d 1507 +6.4% -3.8% 55% 55% -26.1%
≤90d 1507 +6.4% -3.8% 55% 55% -26.1%
all 1507 +6.4% -3.8% 55% 55% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 55% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 54% -33.2%
15% -21.4% 54% -39.6%
20% -29.1% 53% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$936
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses832 / 675
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1507 / 1691
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day115.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1507 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records