Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b63…c50a other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 252L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$45
sports 25% −$18
politics 9% −$5
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$7
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage140d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $858 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $345 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $710 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $660 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $134 −$1 -1%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $536 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $348 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $557 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 57m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 59m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 12h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 23h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 32h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.90 · official $57.90 (match) · 1466 history records