Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b60…4456
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$33 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage627d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 0 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $48 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $8 +$3 +42%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $32 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $201 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $453 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 83% −$13
other 11% −$11
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$10
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 31h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 35h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 52¢ $6 23d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 40 -9.7% -18.3% 20% 8% -11.5%
all 52 -7.7% -16.5% 21% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 6% -10.1%
10% -24.4% 6% -18.7%
15% -31.7% 6% -26.6%
20% -38.4% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records