Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5d…61a5 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$6
other 19% $0
politics 9% −$2
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 7% -8.6%
all 44 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $62 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 18 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 08 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $2 $0 -21%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $4 $0 -7%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $5 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $16 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $30 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $41 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records