Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5c…8aa4 crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (837 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,516 (+45%) realized +$9,516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%89W / 531L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day837.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (837 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-66.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 620 -63.4% -66.9% 14% 8% -21.7%
≤30d 620 -63.4% -66.9% 14% 8% -21.7%
≤90d 620 -63.4% -66.9% 14% 8% -21.7%
all 620 -63.4% -66.9% 14% 8% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover837.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.9% 8% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -70.0% 5% -29.2%
15% -72.9% 3% -36.0%
20% -75.6% 1% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$9,516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses89 / 531
Open positions1
Markets (closed)620 / 221
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day837.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$156 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $0 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $23 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.15 · official $498.99 (match) · 3500 history records