Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5b…77f3 weather 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$31
other 23% +$8
sports 17% +$2
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -9.8% -18.4% 27% 22% -15.9%
≤30d 68 -8.8% -17.5% 19% 13% -17.1%
≤90d 68 -8.8% -17.5% 19% 13% -17.1%
all 68 -8.8% -17.5% 19% 13% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 13% -17.1%
10% -25.4% 9% -25.1%
15% -32.6% 4% -32.3%
20% -39.2% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+11%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 52¢ 50¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 55¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 -12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$4 +13%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 +$5 +119%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $4 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 08 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? SELL No 68¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 39m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 43m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? SELL No 78¢ $2 55m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $39 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $4 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $30 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $27 9h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $4 13h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 94¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 85¢ $1 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $4 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.48 · official $127.31 (match) · 176 history records