Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b5a…2bb7
crypto · 178 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$150 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$150 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses80 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)171 / 178
History coverage23d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 7 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$145
14 days−$436
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? No 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$22 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +42%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $66 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $47 −$25 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $107 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $88 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $98 −$22 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $109 −$43 -40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $69 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $123 −$40 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $128 +$39 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $109 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $97 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $107 −$72 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $92 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $158 −$45 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $117 +$36 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $69 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $130 −$43 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $36 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $72 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$337
other 5% +$25
world 1% +$198
sports 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 171 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 39% -11.3%
≤90d 171 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 39% -11.3%
all 171 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 39% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 32% -19.8%
15% -30.3% 24% -27.6%
20% -37.2% 17% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.99 · official $92.99 (match) · 1617 history records