Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b57…37aa
weather · 571 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$383 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$724 · open −$341
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$404
Realized+$724
Unrealized−$341
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses396 / 157
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)553 / 571
History coverage587d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 18 History 553 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$76
14 days+$176
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $120 $19 −$101 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? No 71¢ 58¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $54 $11 −$43 (-80%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 49¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 30¢ 15¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on January 8? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 20? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 20? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $105 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$6 +4%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 11 $354 +$8 +2%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $151 +$20 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 10 $400 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $83 −$78 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 7? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 7? Jun 08 $501 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $55 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? Jun 07 $72 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 6? Jun 07 $160 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $203 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 6? Jun 07 $260 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $213 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $194 −$79 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $173 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$39 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $402 +$50 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 +$8 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$8 +769%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 3? Jun 04 $239 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $10 −$9 -89%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +22%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 67% +$177
politics 13% +$1,568
other 10% −$965
sports 7% −$308
world 2% −$73
finance 1% +$38
crypto 0% −$42
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 84¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $10 6h
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 88¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $100 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 100¢ $171 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 95¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 87¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 82¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $214 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $98 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.7% -15.6% 68% 11% -9.5%
≤30d 83 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 25% -6.3%
≤90d 356 -12.1% -20.5% 60% 28% -13.1%
all 553 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 24% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 24% -5.9%
10% -22.9% 14% -14.9%
15% -30.4% 10% -23.2%
20% -37.2% 8% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.92 · official $403.92 (match) · 1299 history records