Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b57…b776 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$9
politics 19% −$5
sports 6% +$17
world 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.7% +11.0% 20% 20% -6.6%
≤30d 16 +7.0% -3.2% 12% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 102 +2.6% -7.2% 13% 10% -9.5%
all 108 +2.4% -7.3% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 9% -18.2%
15% -24.3% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage96d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $453 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $414 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $447 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $424 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $400 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $223 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $397 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $423 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $427 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $224 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $413 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $11 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $139 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.91 · official $220.91 (match) · 330 history records