Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b52…c17a crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-11%) realized −$13 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$11
other 20% −$2
world 7% −$12
sports 4% +$1
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 44% -6.7%
≤30d 18 +12.6% +1.8% 50% 44% -6.7%
≤90d 41 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 46% -20.1%
all 41 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 46% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 46% -20.1%
10% -20.4% 41% -27.7%
15% -28.1% 37% -34.7%
20% -35.2% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage62d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$6 +76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -69%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +219%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 15 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 0m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3m
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.86 (match) · 110 history records