Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b51…760e world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$7
other 14% −$2
politics 5% −$3
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 19 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 19 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 0% -10.3%
all 52 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -10.5%
10% -21.7% 2% -19.1%
15% -29.3% 2% -26.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage467d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $80 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $67 −$5 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 29 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Surin May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 25 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $7 +$4 +48%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $14 −$5 -38%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $7 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $40 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $12 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $45 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $9 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.63 · official $42.63 (match) · 152 history records