Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b51…3676 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$3
sports 46% −$7
other 7% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 18 -4.4% -13.5% 17% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 6% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage136d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $7 $0 -1%
Pacers vs. Lakers Mar 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $363 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $326 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $357 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $329 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $325 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $365 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 57d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 99d
Pacers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 81¢ $5 102d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 104d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 126d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $363 127d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $363 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $328 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $329 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $369 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $370 128d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $326 128d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $326 128d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 128d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $353 128d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $315 131d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $315 131d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $356 131d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $357 131d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $328 131d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $329 131d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $330 132d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $330 132d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $322 132d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $322 132d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $359 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.85 · official $7.85 (match) · 52 history records