Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4b4f…6975 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$27 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate77%34W / 10L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$157
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 64% -3.1%
≤30d 44 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 64% -3.1%
≤90d 44 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 64% -3.1%
all 44 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 64% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 64% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 36% -12.4%
15% -24.3% 18% -20.9%
20% -31.7% 11% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses34 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 74¢ 56¢ $104 $78 −$26 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $227 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $229 +$62 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $128 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $127 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $228 +$56 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $128 +$79 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $234 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.31 · official $67.02 · 124 history records