Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b4e…f997 other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,795 (-2%) realized −$2,796 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%37W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,203per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$46
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$177
politics 38% −$34
sports 13% −$2,607
culture 3% −$9
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% −$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -1.9% -11.2% 6% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -11.6% -20.0% 5% 2% -12.0%
all 149 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 9% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 9% -10.9%
10% -18.9% 9% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 7% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,581) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$2,796
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses37 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,203
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $334 $335 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3,601 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $4,212 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,764 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,299 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,458 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $7,632 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,246 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $914 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,279 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $521 +$1 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,733 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $46 +$64 +140%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,221 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $59 +$57 +97%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,247 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $2,286 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,217 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $291 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $291 26h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $779 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $690 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $691 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $714 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $714 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $558 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $650 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $651 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $790 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $791 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $704 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $705 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $334 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $959 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $961 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $907 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $908 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.21 · official $335.21 (match) · 514 history records