Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b4d…dd64
sports · 702 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$102 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open +$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$487
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses290 / 378
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions34
Markets (closed)668 / 702
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day53.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 34 History 668 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$79
14 days+$5
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 62¢ 81¢ $31 $41 +$9 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 74¢ $22 $37 +$16 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 83¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 53¢ 50¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 75¢ $5 $10 +$6 (+114%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 63¢ 81¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 35¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 49¢ 49¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $4 +$17 +388%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$5 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$15 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $47 −$6 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 −$16 -39%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $26 −$18 -69%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 07 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $5 −$1 -28%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $53 +$33 +63%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $5 +$4 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 −$1 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $15 −$4 -25%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $28 +$13 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% +$183
other 19% $0
crypto 7% −$172
world 7% +$64
politics 3% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% +$20
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $6 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 10m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 44¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 44¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 62¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 37¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 48¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $5 2h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer BUY David Jorda Sanchis 20¢ $4 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Katerina Siniakova 89¢ $6 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 71¢ $5 3h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Bublik 54¢ $5 5h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $5 5h
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $3 7h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 19h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 34h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 22¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.5% -16.3% 26% 26% -21.0%
≤30d 621 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 37% -10.5%
≤90d 668 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 38% -9.0%
all 668 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 38% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -17.7%
15% -26.4% 32% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.28 · official $487.29 (match) · 2390 history records