Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b4b…c587 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$275 (-2%) realized −$356 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$665
other 23% −$396
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.2% -20.6% 67% 24% -16.8%
≤30d 33 -12.2% -20.6% 67% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 33 -12.2% -20.6% 67% 24% -16.8%
all 33 -12.2% -20.6% 67% 24% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 24% -16.8%
10% -28.2% 15% -24.8%
15% -35.1% 12% -32.0%
20% -41.5% 12% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$134 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 0¢ 74¢ $0 $81 +$81 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $111 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $713 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1,004 +$53 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $774 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $804 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$3 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,400 +$12 +1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +91%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,301 +$28 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$186 -92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$62 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1,002 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $713 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,004 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,002 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $774 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $804 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,413 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,400 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.77 · official $78.57 · 80 history records