Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b49…0397 sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (430 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,307 (-6%) realized −$23,581 · open −$3,726
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate19%124W / 528L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,206per market
Trades / day430.2pace
Fees−$5,603est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$17,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,711
other 8% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (430 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 641 +9.0% -1.4% 18% 6% -48.3%
≤30d 652 +9.2% -1.2% 19% 6% -46.8%
≤90d 652 +9.2% -1.2% 19% 6% -46.8%
all 652 +9.2% -1.2% 19% 6% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover430.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 6% -46.8%
10% -10.7% 6% -51.8%
15% ← realistic here -19.3% 6% -56.5%
20% -27.2% 5% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,460) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$589 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17,550
Realized−$23,581
Unrealized−$3,726
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses124 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$5,603
Open positions15
Markets (closed)652 / 203
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$2,206
Trades / day430.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 25¢ 100¢ $500 $1,999 +$1,499 (+300%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Naomi Osaka 53¢ 100¢ $1,060 $1,999 +$939 (+89%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 39¢ 96¢ $780 $1,910 +$1,130 (+145%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Heather Watson 65¢ 62¢ $1,300 $1,250 −$50 (-4%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 62¢ $1,220 $1,230 +$10 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ 60¢ $1,097 $1,125 +$28 (+3%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 51¢ 50¢ $1,020 $1,010 −$10 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ 50¢ $1,040 $990 −$50 (-5%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Ashlyn Krueger 85¢ 91¢ $812 $873 +$62 (+8%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Luciano Darderi 41¢ 40¢ $820 $790 −$30 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 34¢ 38¢ $680 $750 +$70 (+10%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 41¢ 40¢ $762 $734 −$28 (-4%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic 50¢ 55¢ $596 $650 +$54 (+9%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Mona Barthel 30¢ 28¢ $600 $570 −$30 (-5%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Daniel Altmaier 51¢ 46¢ $608 $542 −$66 (-11%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 47¢ 50¢ $327 $351 +$24 (+7%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ 4¢ $1,220 $90 −$1,130 (-93%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 14¢ 9¢ $134 $82 −$52 (-39%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Maria Lourdes Carle 42¢ 42¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Harriet Dart 31¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Rebeka Masarova 77¢ 0¢ $1,547 $1 −$1,546 (-100%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 47¢ 0¢ $940 $1 −$939 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 23 $247 −$247 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 23 $0 +$56 +79451%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 23 $900 −$900 -100%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 23 $628 −$628 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 23 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 23 $760 −$760 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 23 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $0 +$30 +18391%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $760 −$766 -101%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 23 $480 −$480 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 23 $840 −$840 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 23 $683 −$683 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 23 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 23 $220 −$220 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 23 $1,295 −$1,295 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Jun 23 $1,460 −$1,460 -100%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Jun 23 $739 −$739 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 23 $860 −$860 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 23 $0 +$348 +339450%
Oeiras 4: Storm Hunter vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $720 −$720 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $411 −$411 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Jun 23 $900 −$900 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $0 +$100 +98898%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 23 $663 −$663 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Jun 23 $880 −$880 -100%
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broom Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 23 $517 −$517 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Jun 23 $1,165 −$1,165 -100%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 23 $620 −$620 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 23 $1,220 −$1,258 -103%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Jun 23 $660 −$660 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 23 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 23 $0 −$299 -118536%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 23 $880 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 23 $0 +$287 +426145%
Split: Tom Gentzsch vs Filippo Romano Jun 23 $262 −$262 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 23 $0 +$346 +405165%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 23 $820 −$820 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 23 $720 −$720 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $189 −$189 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Jun 23 $459 −$459 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anastasia Potapova vs Donna Vekic Jun 23 $880 −$880 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Maria Lourdes Carle 42¢ $6 33m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $311 51m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $2 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $218 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $2 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $226 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $105 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $2 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $226 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $2 58m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $220 58m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $3 58m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $10 59m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $2 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 65¢ $38 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $34 1h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $257 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $666 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $3 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $3 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,550.01 · official $17,549.22 (match) · 3500 history records