Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b46…4451
world · 144 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$62 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$449
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses54 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions57
Markets (closed)87 / 144
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 57 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$29
14 days+$13
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $63 $74 +$12 (+18%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 67¢ 92¢ $38 $52 +$14 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 83¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 64¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 82¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 28¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 30¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+283%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 92¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 72¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 91¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $23 −$17 -76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$4 -21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $39 +$2 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$2 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $67 +$5 +7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +50%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$22
other 13% +$7
crypto 8% −$68
sports 6% +$14
politics 5% +$5
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $3 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $5 7m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 82¢ $1 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 12m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $2 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 79¢ $1 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 67¢ $0 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 46m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $0 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $0 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 37% -18.6%
≤30d 84 -11.2% -19.7% 63% 32% -10.1%
≤90d 87 -11.6% -20.1% 62% 32% -10.3%
all 87 -11.6% -20.1% 62% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 32% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 22% -18.9%
15% -34.7% 18% -26.7%
20% -41.1% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.74 · official $448.74 (match) · 1251 history records