Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b42…9031 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$157
sports 15% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤30d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤90d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +48.8%
all 6 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 50% +48.8%
10% -13.4% 50% +34.6%
15% -21.7% 50% +21.6%
20% -29.4% 33% +9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$13 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$33 +161%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +128%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL 99¢ $53 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 37¢ $20 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records