Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b40…e937 politics 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,027 (-7%) realized −$2,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%69W / 45L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$44
14 days−$207
30 days−$673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$2,040
other 9% −$271
crypto 4% −$46
sports 2% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 65% 39% -7.2%
≤30d 52 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 33% -15.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 62% 35% -17.6%
all 114 -2.0% -11.4% 61% 34% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 34% -17.2%
10% -19.9% 27% -25.1%
15% -27.6% 22% -32.3%
20% -34.7% 11% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$92 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$2,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses69 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage97d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $215 $214 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 73¢ 81¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$6 +29%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $547 +$29 +5%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $371 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 18 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Sarra Attig Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $185 +$20 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $136 +$49 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$25 -85%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $79 +$57 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$88 -53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $30 +$6 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $29 −$10 -33%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $28 −$24 -87%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $427 −$3 -1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $258 −$210 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,327 −$52 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 08 $133 −$5 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,130 −$6 -0%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $365 +$18 +5%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 06 $256 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $220 +$5 +2%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $206 +$17 +8%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%? May 31 $198 +$8 +4%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $370 +$16 +4%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 29 $1,222 −$480 -39%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 25 $1,496 +$50 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $98 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 20 $54 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 20 $275 −$107 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 94¢ $216 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 23m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 73¢ $9 25m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 100¢ $218 31m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 95¢ $188 39m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 96¢ $188 41m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 91¢ $1 45m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 46m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 91¢ $19 51m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 51m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 65¢ $97 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 88¢ $97 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 32¢ $20 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 30¢ $3 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 30¢ $3 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 30¢ $20 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 31¢ $4 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 89¢ $13 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 34¢ $2 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 34¢ $2 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 32¢ $1 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 88¢ $24 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 35¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 35¢ $2 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 32¢ $2 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 32¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.40 · official $223.40 (match) · 1058 history records