Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b3f…db55 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% $0
other 36% +$29
crypto 15% −$11
sports 10% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -6.5%
≤30d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -6.5%
≤90d 9 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -6.5%
all 9 -24.4% -31.6% 44% 44% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 44% -6.5%
10% -38.1% 44% -15.4%
15% -44.1% 44% -23.6%
20% -49.6% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$17 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.75 · official $58.75 (match) · 18 history records