Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4b3f…994f sports 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$694 (+2%) realized +$798 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%353W / 149L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$289
14 days+$298
30 days+$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$5
other 42% +$677
politics 2% −$62
tech 1% +$37
world 1% −$16
crypto 0% +$33
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 88% 62% -1.3%
≤30d 22 +23.4% +11.7% 91% 59% +2.0%
≤90d 42 +15.0% +4.0% 81% 57% -6.5%
all 502 -5.0% -14.1% 70% 60% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 60% -7.7%
10% -22.3% 39% -16.6%
15% -29.8% 21% -24.6%
20% -36.7% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$2,021
Realized+$798
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses353 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions20
Markets (closed)502 / 522
History coverage351d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $399 $390 −$8 (-2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 67¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 21¢ $200 $113 −$87 (-43%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 89¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Joao Fonseca 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Brandon Nakashima 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Zverev 89¢ 86¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+41%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 66¢ 62¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+107%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-63%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $801 +$37 +5%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $902 +$87 +10%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $954 −$35 -4%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $102 +$143 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $701 +$51 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $702 +$83 +12%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $61 −$60 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $50 +$11 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $252 +$104 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $601 +$44 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 31 $100 +$10 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $201 +$40 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $702 +$59 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 29 $101 +$71 +70%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $47 +$57 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $602 +$84 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 25 $601 +$31 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $502 +$60 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Lewis Hall be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad May 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $454 +$189 +42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? May 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Marco Trungelliti Apr 04 $918 −$915 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 03 $10 $0 -3%
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Alycia Parks Apr 02 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 +$13 +252%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $20 +$10 +51%
Copa Colsanitas: Camila Osorio vs Caroline Dolehide Apr 01 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Mar 30 $100 +$39 +39%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils Mar 28 $659 +$59 +9%
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Mar 26 $50 +$39 +79%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Mar 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 26 $588 +$112 +19%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Mar 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng Mar 24 $400 +$76 +19%
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Mar 24 $514 +$47 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 82¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Brandon Nakashima 79¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 89¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 21h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 89¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $701 3d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 3d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $902 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $898 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Tommy Paul 11¢ $20 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 89¢ $803 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 86¢ $100 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $50 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 12d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 15d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 15d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $61 15d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 86¢ $10 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 15d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $701 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,020.59 · official $2,020.60 (match) · 1454 history records