Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4b3d…2a01 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,967 (-1%) realized −$1,969 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,346per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$37
politics 27% −$93
sports 9% −$1,930
world 3% −$6
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% −$3
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +2.5% -7.3% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 2% -10.9%
all 127 +0.2% -9.4% 9% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -10.6%
10% -18.0% 6% -19.1%
15% -26.0% 6% -26.9%
20% -33.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,819) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$23 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$1,969
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,346
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $354 $356 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,981 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,068 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,771 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,002 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,540 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 08 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,057 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,725 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,067 −$35 -3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $73 +$74 +101%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $868 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $58 +$54 +93%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,125 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $462 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $583 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,119 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $889 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,979 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,209 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,523 −$7 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 19 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $3,698 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,154 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 08 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,551 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 07 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $545 16h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $546 18h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $462 24h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $463 25h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $434 42h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $434 44h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $278 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $278 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $784 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $785 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $611 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $612 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $756 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $757 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $786 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $787 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $730 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $731 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $354 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $836 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $837 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.95 · official $355.95 (match) · 410 history records