Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4b3c…7cd3 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$5,569 · open −$5,553
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day186.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$99
other 43% −$5,570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+90.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +70.7% +54.4% 62% 8% -11.9%
≤30d 41 +110.8% +90.7% 63% 12% -10.8%
≤90d 41 +110.8% +90.7% 63% 12% -10.8%
all 41 +110.8% +90.7% 63% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.7% 12% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here +72.5% 12% -19.3%
15% +55.8% 10% -27.1%
20% +40.5% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +143% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
46.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$76 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$20,416
Realized+$5,569
Unrealized−$5,553
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$297
Trades / day186.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 80¢ $9,384 $14,921 +$5,537 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $9,384 $3,847 −$5,537 (-59%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 95¢ 98¢ $470 $484 +$14 (+3%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 72¢ $113 $232 +$120 (+106%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $160 $177 +$16 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $172 $169 −$3 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? No 62¢ 40¢ $168 $108 −$61 (-36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $58 $94 +$36 (+62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $97 $85 −$13 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $81 $50 −$31 (-38%)
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $343 −$103 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $152 −$106 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $291 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $499 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $582 −$82 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $838 +$73 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $577 +$37 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,149 −$253 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $199 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $177 +$199 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $121 −$12 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $42 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $291 −$36 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $472 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $431 +$22 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $774 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 21 $167 −$51 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $231 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 21 $179 −$75 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $139 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 21 $337 +$28 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 21 $803 −$230 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $377 +$129 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $240 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $903 −$186 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $286 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$62 +10326%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $37 +$377 +1017%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 43¢ $3 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 43¢ $1 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 43¢ $1 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 53¢ $5 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL No 95¢ $10 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 32¢ $3 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? SELL No 22¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,415.67 · official $20,406.61 (match) · 3500 history records