Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b3c…ec0d crypto 114 markets active 9h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$253 (-23%) realized −$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$128
14 days−$235
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -7.1% -16.0% 52% 52% -33.1%
≤30d 105 -16.5% -24.5% 47% 47% -33.4%
≤90d 114 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 48% -31.3%
all 114 -12.3% -20.7% 48% 48% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 48% -31.3%
10% -28.3% 48% -37.8%
15% -35.2% 48% -43.9%
20% -41.5% 48% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage31d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$52 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$27 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$31 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $50 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records