Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b3c…a25d other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$85 (-20%) realized −$101 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$116
sports 41% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.5% -54.3% 33% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 9 -49.5% -54.3% 33% 33% -14.4%
≤90d 9 -49.5% -54.3% 33% 33% -14.4%
all 13 -55.9% -60.1% 31% 31% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.1% 31% -36.0%
10% -63.9% 15% -42.1%
15% -67.4% 8% -47.7%
20% -70.6% 8% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage131d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 88¢ $80 $106 +$26 (+33%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 54¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -60%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$19 +61%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$15 -72%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 +$4 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $49 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 92¢ $67 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? SELL No 100¢ $24 131d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 131d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? BUY No 66¢ $20 131d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 131d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY No 84¢ $20 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.75 · official $206.05 (match) · 26 history records