Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

4B 0x4b3b…900f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+1.0%	-8.6%	62%	62%	-11.7%
≤30d	8	+1.0%	-8.6%	62%	62%	-11.7%
≤90d	8	+1.0%	-8.6%	62%	62%	-11.7%
all	8	+1.0%	-8.6%	62%	62%	-11.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	62%	-11.7%
10%	-17.4%	38%	-20.2%
15%	-25.4%	38%	-27.9%
20%	-32.7%	38%	-35.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$119 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$691

Realized−$5

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)8 / 12

History coverage3d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$300	$297	−$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$300	$295	−$5 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$51	+$35	+69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$203	+$30	+15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$52	−$6	-12%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$52	−$50	-97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$101	+$16	+16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$308	−$300	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$102	+$62	+60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$307	+$185	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$102	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$52	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$204	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$205	7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	16¢	$45	30h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$52	31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$52	31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$203	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$101	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$308	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$307	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.31 · official $691.31 (match) · 20 history records